Scientists found methane emissions from this vast area of permafrost have been rising by around 5% per year since 2010, with emissions during the summer growing season now more than twice as high as 2010 levels.
The findings suggest a worrying cycle. As the Arctic warms, more methane is released into the atmosphere, which in turn causes further warming and could undermine efforts to meet global climate targets, experts warn.
Integrated approach
An international team, including scientists from the National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) based at the University of Edinburgh and researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, analysed satellite and atmospheric data from 2010 to 2023.
NCEO partners from the University of Leicester provided data regarding methane emissions, retrieved from the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT).
The Edinburgh team used GOSAT’s satellite data and advanced climate modelling to quantify the emissions and to link the observed increases to changes in atmospheric air circulation, soil conditions and fire activity across Siberia.
Compelling evidence
The results provide some of the clearest evidence to date that Arctic warming is already amplifying methane emissions from Siberia through two distinct pathways.
In western Siberia, warmer and wetter conditions are boosting methane production in wetlands and in eastern Siberia, hotter and drier conditions are fuelling wildfires, which release methane and further destabilise the permafrost.
Together, these events are driving a rapid increase in methane emissions, researchers say.
Intense wildfires
The research highlights a sharp rise in wildfire-driven methane emissions in eastern Siberia since 2019. Hotter, drier summers, linked to persistent high-pressure weather systems, are creating ideal conditions for large, long-lasting fires.
These fires release methane directly into the air, but they also accelerate permafrost thaw, potentially leading to longer-term increases in emissions.
Warming Arctic
Siberia contains almost half of the Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost – frozen ground that stores vast amounts of carbon. As the Arctic warms at nearly four times the global average rate, this frozen carbon is beginning to thaw, releasing rapidly increasing amounts of methane into the atmosphere.
Methane is a particularly potent greenhouse gas which traps significantly more heat than carbon dioxide over shorter periods of time, and is a major contributor to global warming.
Global implications
Although Siberia currently accounts for a relatively small share of global methane emissions, any increase has global consequences because methane spreads rapidly through the atmosphere and is a powerful greenhouse gas.
Researchers estimate that Siberian emissions could increase by an additional 25 million tonnes per year by 2050, comparable to the annual methane emissions of some major industrialised nations.
These additional emissions could offset a substantial share of the methane cuts needed this decade to keep global warming close to 1.5°C, experts say.
Emission levels
In practice, this means that even if countries reduce their own emissions, rising methane from warming regions like the Arctic could significantly add to the challenge.
Over time, the Arctic could shift from storing carbon in frozen ground to releasing increasing amounts into the atmosphere, highlighting the need for faster global action.
The research, published in Science, was funded by the NCEO via the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).