Professor Víctor Elvira of the School of Mathematics will lead the project to investigate and forecast tipping points that, once reached, could lead to cascading and irreversible changes to Earth’s climate.
The project, called PROTECT, will develop new methods in statistics, signal processing and AI to forecast and understand these tipping points, and to quantify uncertainties about them.
Severe impacts
Previous research has shown that major parts of the Earth system are at risk of crossing climate tipping points within the next century, with severe consequences for biodiversity, food security, agriculture and humanity.
For example, if polar temperatures keep rising, ice sheets will melt rapidly, causing sea levels to rise. This will also thaw permafrost, releasing greenhouse gases that will further accelerate climate change, including even more rapid thawing of ice sheets.
Many of these tipping points are part of complex and interconnected systems that makes their early warning signs hard to predict.
Climate programme
Funding for the Edinburgh project is part of a five-year £81 million programme by the Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA).
The initiative will fund 27 international research projects to work collaboratively to create an early warning system for tipping points.
ARIA is a new UK Government agency that backs high-risk, high-reward research projects.