Key Publications

Key publications by the group since 2012.

Library shelves full of books

Peter Hanlon,Elaine W. Butterly,Anoop SV Shah,Laurie J. Hannigan,Jim Lewsey,Frances S. Mair,David M. Kent,Bruce Guthrie,Sarah H. Wild,Nicky J. Welton,Sofia Dias,David A. McAllister Treatment effect modification due to comorbidity: Individual participant data meta-analyses of 120 randomised controlled trials  PLOS Medicine PLoS Med 20(6): e1004176

Catherine Kidd, Eddie Donaghy, Huayi Huang, Rhian Noble-Jones, Sharon Ogilvie, Julia McGregor, Margaret Maxwell, John Gillies, David AG Henderson, Harry HX Wang and Stewart W Mercer Challenges in implementing GP clusters in Scotland: a qualitative study comparing the views of senior primary care stakeholders in 2016 with those in 2021 BJGP Open 16 May 2023; BJGPO.2022.0152. DOI:


Shona Livingstone, Daniel R. Morales, Jacques Fleuriot, Peter T. Donnan & Bruce Guthrie External validation of the QLifetime cardiovascular risk prediction tool: population cohort study BMC Cardiovascular Disorders volume 23, Article number: 194 (2023) Available here.


Daniel R Morales, Mark Minchin, associate director of quality, Evangelos Kontopantelis, Martin Roland,  Matt Sutton, professor of health economics, Bruce Guthrie Estimated impact from the withdrawal of primary care financial incentives on selected indicators of quality of care in Scotland: controlled interrupted time series analysis MJ 2023; 380 doi: (Published 22 March 2023) Cite this as: BMJ 2023;380:e072098


Morales, DR, Minchin, M, Kontopantelis, E, Roland, M, Sutton, M & Guthrie, B 2023, 'Impact of abolishing primary care financial incentives on selected indicators of quality-of-care in Scotland: national controlled interrupted time series analysis', The BMJ. Available here.


MacRae, C, Henderson, D, Guthrie, B & Mercer, SW 2022, 'Multimorbidity and comorbidity patterns in the English National Health Service', Cell Reports Medicine. 

Doi: 10.1016/j.xcrm.2022.100863


Elaine W. Butterly, Peter Hanlon, Anoop S. V. Shah, Laurie J. Hannigan, Emma McIntosh, Jim Lewsey, Sarah H. Wild, Bruce Guthrie, Frances S. Mair, David M. Kent, Sofia Dias, Nicky J. Welton, David A. McAllister Comorbidity and health-related quality of life in people with a chronic medical condition in randomised clinical trials: An individual participant data meta-analysis


Derivation and validation of the CFracture competing risk fracture prediction tool compared with QFracture in older people and people with comorbidity: a population cohort study Lancet VOLUME 4, ISSUE 1, E43-E53, JANUARY 01, 2023. 


Shona J Livingstone, Daniel R Morales, Megan McMinn, Chima Eke, Peter Donnan and Bruce Guthrie. Effect of competing mortality risks on predictive performance of the QFracture risk prediction tool for major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture: external validation cohort study in a UK primary care population BMJ Medicine 2022;1:e000316. doi: 10.1136/bmjmed-2022-000316


Hanlon, P, Butterly, E, Shah, ASV, Hannigan, LJ, Wild, SH, Guthrie, B, Mair, FS, Dias, S, Welton, NJ & McAllister, DA 2022, 'Assessing trial representativeness using Serious Adverse Events: An observational analysis using aggregate and individual-level data from clinical trials and routine healthcare data', BMC Medicine.


Huang H, Wang HHX, Donaghy E, Henderson D, Mercer SW Using self-determination theory in research and evaluation in primary care Health Expect. 2022 Oct 1. doi: 10.1111/hex.13620. Online ahead of print. 


MacRae C, Fisken HW, Lawrence E, Connor T, Pearce J, Marshall A, Lawson A, Dibben C, Mercer SW, Guthrie B Household and area determinants of emergency department attendance and hospitalisation in people with multimorbidity: a systematic review BMJ Open. 2022 Oct 3;12(10):e063441. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-063441PMID: 36192100 Free PMC article.


Mercer, SW, Lunan, C, MacRae, C, Henderson, D, Fitzpatrick, B, Gillies, J, Guthrie, B & Reilly, J 2022, 'Half a century of the inverse care law: a comparison of general practitioner job satisfaction and patient satisfaction in deprived and affluent areas of Scotland', Scottish Medical Journal.


Lees, JS, Hanlon, P, Butterly, E, Wild, SH, Mair, F, Taylor, RS, Guthrie, B, Gillies, K, Dias, S, Welton, NJ & McAllister, DA 2022, 'Effect of age, sex, and morbidity count on trial attrition: meta-analysis of individual participant level data from phase 3/4 industry funded clinical trials', BMJ Medicine, vol. 1, no. 1, e000217.


Eddie Donaghy 1Huayi Huang 1David Henderson 1Harry Hx Wang 2Bruce Guthrie 1Andrew Thompson 3Stewart W Mercer 1 Primary care transformation in Scotland: qualitative evaluation of the views of national senior stakeholders and cluster quality leads PMID: 36127153 PMCID: PMC9512407 DOI: 10.3399/BJGP.2022.0186


Prigge, R, Wild, SH & Jackson, CA 2022, 'The individual and combined associations of depression and socioeconomic status with risk of major cardiovascular events: A prospective cohort study', Journal of Psychosomatic Research, vol. 160, 110978.


Wilding, A, Guthrie, B, Kontopantelis, E & Sutton, M 2022, 'Family doctor responses to changes in target stringency under financial incentives', Journal of Health Economics, vol. 85, 102651.


Scheuer, SH, Fleetwood, KJ, Am Licence, K, Mercer, SW, Smith, DJ, Lm Sudlow, C, Andersen, GS, Wild, SH & Jackson, CA 2022, 'Severe mental illness and quality of care for type 2 diabetes: a retrospective population-based cohort study', Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, vol. 190, no. 110026, 110026, pp. 110026.


Iris S S Ho, Amaya Azcoaga-Lorenzo, Ashley Akbari, Jim Davies, Kamlesh Khunti, Umesh T Kadam, Ronan A Lyons, Colin McCowan, Stewart W Mercer, Krishnarajah Nirantharakumar, Sophie Staniszewska and Bruce Guthrie Measuring multimorbidity in research: Delphi consensus study BMJ Medicine July 27 2022 doi: 10.1136/bmjmed-2022-000247


Anna WildingLuke MunfordBruce GuthrieEvangelos KontopantelisMatt SuttonFamily Doctor responses to changes in target stringency under financial incentivesJournal of Health Economics


Jonathan Stokes Peter Bower Bruce Guthrie Stewart W.Mercer Nigel Rice Andrew M.Ryan Matt SuttonCuts to local government spending, multimorbidity and health-related quality of life: A longitudinal ecological study in England: The Lancet Regional Health:


Ellen Stewart, Eddie Donaghy, Bruce Guthrie, David Henderson, Huayi Huang, Martyn Pickersgill, Harry HX Wang and Stewart Mercer: Transforming primary care in Scotland: a critical policy analysis: British Journal of General Practice 2022; 72 (719): 292-294.  DOI: 


Park, K-Y, Shin, J, Park, H-K, Kim, YM, Hwang, SY, Shin, J-H, Heo, R, Ryu, S & Mercer, SW 2022, 'Validity and reliability of a Korean version of the Consultation and Relational Empathy (CARE) measure', BMC Medical Education, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 403.


Hubbard G, Grist F, Pope LM, Cunningham S, Maxwell M, Bennie M, Guthrie B, Mercer SW: Survey to identify research priorities for primary care in Scotland during and following the COVID-19 pandemic. BMJ Open. 2022 May 3;12(5):e056817. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-056817. PMID: 35504637


Shona J. Livingstone, Bruce Guthrie, Peter T. Donnan, Alexander Thompson & Daniel R. Morales: Predictive performance of a competing risk cardiovascular prediction tool CRISK compared to QRISK3 in older people and those with comorbidity: population cohort study BMC Medicine volume 20, Article number: 152 (2022) 


Adam L Gordon, Caroline Rick, Ed Juszczak, Alan Montgomery, Rob Howard, Bruce Guthrie, Wei Shen Lim, Susan Shenkin, Paul Leighton, Philip M Bath, the PROTECT-CH Triallists The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to invest in care home research infrastructure BGS Age and Ageing Volume 51, Issue 3 March 2022


Hodgkins P, McMinn M, Shah A, Reed MJ, Mercer S, Guthrie B: Unscheduled care pathways in patients with myocardial infarction in Scotland British Medical Journal - Heart- March 2022


Ho, IS-S, Azcoaga-Lorenzo, A, Akbari, A, Davies, J, Hodgins, P, Khunti, K, Kadam, U, Lyons, R, McCowan, C, Mercer, SW, Nirantharakumar, K & Guthrie, B 2022, 'Variation in the estimated prevalence of multimorbidity: systematic review and meta-analysis of 193 international studies', BMJ Open, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. e057017.


Ho, I, Azcoaga-Lorenzo, A, Akbari, A, Black, C, Davies, J, Hodgins, P, Khunti, K, Leicester, U, Lyons, RA, McGowan, C, Mercer, SW, Nirantharakumar, K & Guthrie, B 2021, 'Examining variation in the measurement of multimorbidity in research: a systematic review of 566 studies', The Lancet Public Health.  


Captieux R, Fleetwood K, Kennon B, Sattar N, Lindsay R, Guthrie B, Wild SH on behalf of the Scottish Diabetes Research Network epidemiology group. Epidemiology of type 2 diabetes remission in Scotland in 2019: a cross-sectional population-based study. PLoS Medicine 2021: 18(11): e1003828


Captieux M, Prigge R, Wild S, Guthrie B. Defining remission of type 2 diabetes in research studies: A systematic scoping review. PLOS Medicine 2020;17:e1003396.


Burton, JK, Bayne, G, Evans, C, Garbe, F, Gorman, D, Lothian, P, McCormick, D, Lothian, P, Stevenson, J, Swietlik, S, Templeton, KE, Tranter, M, Willocks, L & Guthrie, B 2020, 'Evolution and impact of COVID-19 outbreaks in care-homes: population analysis in 189 care-homes in one geographic region', Lancet Healthy Longevity.&nbsp.


He, J, Morales, DR & Guthrie, B 2020, 'Exclusion rates in randomized-controlled trials of treatments for physical conditions: a systematic review ', Trials, vol. 21, no. 228.


Santiago VH, Davey PG, Nathwani D, Marwick C, Guthrie B.  Impact of a primary care antimicrobial stewardship intervention on resistance in coliform bacteraemia. PLoS Medicine 2019;16:e1002825


Minchin, M, Roland, M, Richardson, J, Rowark, S & Guthrie, B 2018, 'Quality of Care in the United Kingdom after Removal of Financial Incentives', New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 379, no. 10, pp. 948-957.  2018


Salisbury, C, Man, M-S, Bower, P, Guthrie, B, Chaplin, K, Gaunt, DM, Brookes, S, Fitzpatrick, B, Gardner, C, Hollinghurst, S, Lee, V, McLeod, J, Mann, C, Moffat, KR & Mercer, SW 2018, 'Management of multimorbidity using a patient-centred care model', The Lancet, vol. 392, no. 10141, pp. 41-50.


Dreischulte, T, Donnan, P, Grant, A, Hapca, A, McCowan, C & Guthrie, B 2016, 'Safer Prescribing: A Trial of Education, Informatics, and Financial Incentives', New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 374, no. 11, pp. 1053-1064.


Guthrie, B, Kavanagh, K, Robertson, C, Barnett, K, Treweek, S, Petrie, D, Ritchie, LD & Bennie, M 2016, 'Data feedback and behavioural change intervention to improve primary care prescribing safety (EFIPPS)', British Medical Journal, vol. 354, pp. 1-9.


Mercer, SW, Higgins, M, Bikker, AM, Fitzpatrick, B, McConnachie, A, Lloyd, SM, Little, P & Watt, GCM 2016, 'General Practitioners Empathy and Health Outcomes: A Prospective Observational Study of Consultations in Areas of High and Low Deprivation', The Annals of Family Medicine, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 117-124.


W. Mercer, S, Fitzpatrick, B, Guthrie, B, Fenwick, E, Grieve, E, Lawson, K, Boyer, N, McConnachie, A, Lloyd, SM, O'Brien, R, Watt, GCM & Wyke, S 2016, 'The care plus study - a whole system intervention to improve quality of life of primary care patients with multimorbidity in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation', BMC Medicine, vol. 14, pp. 1-10.


Guthrie, B, Makubate, B, Hernandez Santiago, V & Dreischulte, T 2015, 'The rising tide of polypharmacy and drug-drug interactions', BMC Medicine, vol. 13.


Wang HHX, Wang JJ, Wong SYS, Wong MCS, Zhou ZH, Li FJ, Wang PX, Xu L, Griffiths SM, Mercer SW. Epidemiology of multimorbidity and implications for equitable healthcare: Cross-sectional survey among 162,464 community household residents in southern China. BMC Medicine 2014,12:188


Barnett, K, Mercer, SW, Norbury, M, Watt, G, Wyke, S & Guthrie, B 2012, 'Epidemiology of multimorbidity and implications for health care, research, and medical education: a cross-sectional study', The Lancet, vol. 380, no. 9836, pp. 37-43.


Guthrie, B, Payne, K, Alderson, P, McMurdo, MET & Mercer, SW 2012, 'Adapting clinical guidelines to take account of multimorbidity', British Medical Journal, vol. 345, no. oct04, pp. e6341-e6341.








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