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First dose vaccine effectiveness update: full study now available from The Lancet

A milestone study, which points to the success of first dose mass vaccination in reducing COVID-19 hospitalisations across Scotland, is now available from The Lancet.

Background

The aim of the study was to investigate the association between the mass roll-out of first vaccine doses and COVID-19 hospital admissions.

As part of EAVE II – a BREATHE-associated project – researchers from the Universities of Edinburgh, Strathclyde, Aberdeen, Glasgow, and St Andrew’s, and Public Health Scotland (PHS) analysed a dataset covering the entire Scottish population of 5.4 million people to track the vaccine roll-out in real time; a landmark initiative.

Following a pre-print paper, published in February, the peer-reviewed publication is now available to view at The Lancet.

First vaccine dose

The published paper includes an extended analysis period, from 8th December 2020 to 22nd February 2021. During this period, over 1.33 million individuals received their first vaccine dose.

Four weeks after receiving a first dose, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was shown to reduce the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation by 91%, and the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine by 88%. Collectively, these results show an association with substantial reductions in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisations across Scotland.

Older population

The study team found a comparable vaccine effect in those aged 80 and over, with a first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines offering an 88% and 81% reduction in COVID-19 hospitalisations, respectively, after four weeks.

These up-to-date findings show that first doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines protect against hospital admissions in all adult age groups including older age groups over 80. These findings highlight the need to speed up the roll-out of first vaccine doses and achieve high population coverage.

Dr Eleftheria Vasileiou, PhDCo-Lead Author, BREATHE

Read the paper 

Interim findings from first-dose mass COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland: a national prospective cohort study

Find out more

Read the original news story: Scottish vaccine roll-out working, data suggests | The University of Edinburgh  

Statistical Analysis Plans (SAPs) available: Protocol and analysis | The University of Edinburgh

Follow the link to meet the EAVE II team, the excellent researchers leading the study: Meet the EAVE II team | The University of Edinburgh

The study was funded by the Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research and Health Data Research UK, and supported by the Scottish Government.

Additional support has been provided through Public Health Scotland and Scottish Government Director-General Health and Social Care, and the UKRI COVID-19 National Core Studies Data and Connectivity programme led by HDR UK.

Cite as

Vasileiou E, Simpson CR, Robertson C, Shi T, Kerr S, et al. Interim findings from first-dose mass COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland: a national prospective cohort study. The Lancet. Published online April 23, 2021. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00677-2