Research Publications
See our findings in academic paper publications.
Quick Access List
A reference list of our key academic paper publications
Prevalence and risk factors for long Covid among adults in Scotland
April 2024: Research published in eClinicalMedicine looks at how many adults in Scotland have long Covid, based on electronic health records.
Risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes after autumn 2022 booster vaccinations
February 2024: Research published in the Lancet Regional Health - Europe uses national UK data to explore severity of outcomes after 2022 autumn COVID-19 booster vaccinations.
Risk of winter hospitalisation and death from acute respiratory infections in Scotland
February 2024: Research published in the the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine looks at the severity of acute respiratory infections across the winter period in Scotland.
Risk of COVID-19 death in adults who received Autumn 2022 booster vaccinations in England
January 2024: Study published in Nature Communications identify health conditions linked to an increased risk of COVID-19 death, despite receiving their 2022 Autumn boost vaccine.
The UK's first whole-population analysis
January 2024: Published in The Lancet, the UK’s epidemiological study of over 64 million people finds under-vaccinated people at higher risk for severe COVID-19
Ethnic misclassification and risk of severe COVID-19 in minority ethnic groups in Scotland
October 2023: Study published in The Journey of Public Health examines the quality of ethnicity coding within national public health datasets in Scotland.
Comment: Developing the EAVE III platform for future health crises
October 2023: Senior members of the EAVE II team outline their ambitions to build upon the project's success and develop an 'EAVE III' platform.
Understanding and reporting odds ratios as rate-ratio estimates in case-control studies
September 2023: EAVE II analysts outline best practice for reporting sample odds ratios as estimated rate ratios in case-control studies.
Neonatal and maternal outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination
August 2023: Research published in Nature Communications uses health data to explore outcomes for mothers and newborns following COVID-19 infection and vaccination during pregnancy in Scotland.
Predicting incomplete COVID-19 vaccination schedules in Scotland
August 2023: Research published in the Vaccine journal explores predictors of incomplete COVID-19 vaccine schedule among adults in Scotland.
Increased risk of COVID-19 outcomes among minority ethnic groups within Scotland
July 2023: Research published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Health has showed White Gypsy/Traveller and Pakistani groups have a higher risk of severe COVID-19 illness in Scotland.
Vaccine effectiveness and severity of Omicron BA.5 variant on COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland
Research published in The Lancet Regional Health - Europe investigates Omicron BA.5 variant risk and vaccine protection on severe COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland.
Pre-print: Association between antibody responses post-vaccination and severe COVID-19 outcomes
May 2023: EAVE II team investigates the relationship between a person having multiple underlying health conditions, their antibody response to COVID-19 vaccines and likelihood of experiencing severe health outcomes of COVID-19.
Accelerated waning of COVID-19 vaccine immunity in obesity
May 2023: New research, published in Nature Medicine, shows that obesity accelerates the loss of COVID-19 vaccination immunity
Pre-print: Identifying Long Covid Using Electronic Health Records
March 2023: Research submitted to The Lancet Digital Health* looks at how many people in Scotland have long Covid, based on electronic health records.
Pre-print: Understanding Outcomes of COVID-19 Treatments including Antivirals and Antibodies across Scotland
March 2023: Scottish study looks at the risk of people experiencing serious COVID-19 illness after being treated with antivirals and/or neutralising monoclonal antibodies, and estimates how effective these treatments are compared to one another
Effectiveness of mRNA boosters against symptomatic infection and severe COVID-19 in Brazil and Scotland
January 2023: Research published in PLOS Medicine looks at how well mRNA booster vaccines work in protecting people in Scotland and Brazil against COVID-19.
Study of major congenital anomalies following COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection
January 2022: This study, published in Nature Communications, looks at the risk of major congenital conditions following COVID-19 vaccines or SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Scottish newborns 2020–2022
December 2022: Research published in Archives of Disease in Childhood looks at the number of newborn babies in Scotland with SARS-CoV-2 viral infection.
Uptake of monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral therapies for COVID-19 in Scotland
December 2022: New research published in the Lancet looks at the uptake of COVID-19 treatments in Scotland.
Assessing medication use patterns in patients hospitalised with COVID-19: a retrospective study
December 2022: New study describes how three medications - dexamethasone, remdesivir, and tocilizumab— are used to treat patients hospitalised with COVID-19.
Spotlight: Patient collaboration in COVID-19 research: translating ideas to reality
December 2022: PPI Lead Dr Lana Woolford and Patient Advisory Group members David W and Sandra J speak about the importance of patient collaboration in COVID-19 research, as well as their experiences of working with the EAVE II project.
Letter: Severity of Omicron BA.2 variant and vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease in Scotland
November 2022: Letter showing that the 'Stealth' Omicron variant BA.2 put people at similar risk for COVID-19 than if infected with the original variant. Three vaccination doses also provide reasonable protection against both symptomatic infection and death. The summary in plain English for this paper is in progress and will be published soon.
Waning of first- and second-dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccinations across the UK
October 2022: Study finds that protection provided by first and second doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1, as well as first dose of Pfizer BioNTech BNT162b2 vaccines completely wanes by 80 days post-vaccination.
Waning of first- and second-dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccinations across the UK
October 2022: Research published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine looks at the impact of COVID-19 on the health of pregnant women, and their babies, after Delta and Omicron infections.
COPS: Early Pregnancy Outcomes following COVID-19 Vaccination and SARS-COV-2 Infection in Pregnant Women
October 2022: Research published in Nature Communications looks at potential links between COVID-19 vaccines, SARS-CoV-2 infections, and miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy.
COPS: Early Pregnancy Outcomes following COVID-19 Vaccination and SARS-COV-2 Infection in Pregnant Women
October 2022: Research published in Nature Communications looks at potential links between COVID-19 vaccines, SARS-CoV-2 infections, and miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy.
Pregnancy outcomes following Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection in Scotland: a population-based cohort study
October 2022: Research published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine looks at the impact of COVID-19 on the health of pregnant women, and their babies, after Delta and Omicron infections.
Severe COVID-19 outcomes after full vaccination of primary schedule and initial boosters
October 2022: Research published in The Lancet looks at who is at higher risk of serious illness following an Omicron infection, after a third or booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine.
Pregnancy outcomes following Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection in Scotland
October 2022: Research published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine looks at the impact of COVID-19 on the health of pregnant women, and their babies, after Delta and Omicron infections.
BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination uptake, safety, effectiveness and waning in children and young people aged 12–17 years in Scotland
September 2022: Research published in The Lancet Regional Health Europe looks at the uptake, safety, and effectiveness over time of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for people aged 12-17 in Scotland.
Risk of COVID-19 hospitalizations among school-aged children in Scotland
September 2022: Study looking at the risk of COVID-19 hospitalizations among school-aged children. The summary in plain English for this paper is in progress and will be published soon.
Characterising adults in Scotland who are not vaccinated against COVID-19
September 2022: A Research Letter published in The Lancet looks at who has not yet been vaccinated for COVID-19 in Scotland.
Second-dose Oxford-AstraZeneca and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines and blood clotting and bleeding events in Scotland
August 2022: Research published in Nature Communications looks at potential side effects of second dose COVID-19 vaccines, related to bleeding and blood clotting.
Effectiveness of Two-Dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine among Adolescents in Scotland and Brazil
August 2022: New paper looks at how the effectiveness of two-doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine changes over time in adolescents. The paper looks at the effectiveness of protection provided against symptomatic infection of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and severe cases of COVID-19.
COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes from Delta AY.4.2
July 2022: Research published in the Journal of Global Health looks at how effective vaccines are in protecting people from symptomatic COVID-19 disease, hospital admission and death caused by the ‘Delta plus’ variant of SARS-CoV-2.
Common protocol for validation of the QCOVID algorithm across the four UK nations
June 2022: Paper published in BMJ Open, outlines a common procedure for conducting and reporting on validation exercises for the QCOVID risk prediction algorithm.
Pre-print: Obesity is associated with reduced SARS-CoV-2 vaccine efficacy
June 2022: New pre-print outlines research done in collaboration with and led by the University of Cambridge. This study looks at the relationship between the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines and obesity.
Protocol: Common protocol for validation of the QCOVID algorithm across the four UK nations
June 2022: New protocol outlining a common procedure for conducting and reporting on validation exercises for the QCOVID algorithm.
Impact of first UK COVID-19 lockdown on hospital admissions in England, Scotland and Wales
May 2022: Research published in eClinical Medicine looks at how the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted healthcare in England, Scotland and Wales.
Impact on emergency and elective hospital-based care in Scotland over the first year of the pandemic
May 2022: Research published in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine looks at how the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted healthcare in Scotland from March 2020 to March 2021.
Severity of omicron variant of concern and effectiveness of vaccine boosters against symptomatic disease in Scotland
April 2022: Research published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases looks at COVID-19 hospital admissions, and the effectiveness of vaccine boosters, in people infected by the Omicron variant in Scotland.
Pre-print: Waning of BNT162b2 or ChadOx1 mRNA Boosters against symptomatic infection and severe COVID-19 in Brazil and Scotland
April 2022: Pre-print article published on preprints with The Lancet investigates the waning effectiveness of booster vaccines from Pfizer BioNTech (BNT162b2) and Oxfrord-AstraZeneca (ChadOx1), against symptomatic infection and severe COVID-19 in Brazil and Scotland.
Vaccine Effectiveness of Two-Dose BNT162b2 Over Time Against COVID-19 Symptomatic Infection and Severe Cases Among Adolescents
April 2022 (Pre-print): Research published in The Lancet looks at the effectiveness of two COVID-19 vaccine doses in adolescents over time.
BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccinations, Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and COVID-19 Hospitalisations in Scotland in the Delta era
March 2022: Research published in the Journal of Global Health looks at patterns of COVID-19 disease and hospital admissions in Scotland when the Delta variant was most common.
Uptake of infant and preschool immunisations in Scotland and England during the COVID-19 pandemic
February 2022: Research published in PLOS Medicine looks at the uptake of routine childhood vaccines in Scotland and England before, during and after COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.
First dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccinations and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis
First dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccinations and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis: A pooled self-controlled case series study of 11.6 million individuals in England, Scotland, and Wales.
Protocol: Investigating the uptake, effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccines
February 2022: Protocol outlining a new study aimed at assessing the uptake rates, effectiveness, and safety of all currently approved COVID-19 vaccines in the UK.
Vaccine effectiveness of heterologous CoronaVac plus BNT162b2 in Brazil
February 2022: Study investigates the effectiveness of primary dose CoronaVac COVID-19 vaccines and Pfizer BioNTech booster vaccines in 14 million people in Brazil
Risk of serious COVID-19 outcomes among adults with asthma in Scotland: a national incident cohort study
January 2022: Research published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine looks at which adults with asthma in Scotland might be at risk of serious complications from COVID-19.
SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination rates in pregnant women in Scotland
January 2022: Research published in Nature Medicine looks at COVID-19 disease and vaccination in pregnant women in Scotland, and the impact this has had on their health.
Cohort Profile: The COVID-19 in Pregnancy in Scotland (COPS) dynamic cohort of pregnant women to assess effects of viral and vaccine exposures on pregnancy
The COVID-19 in Preganacy in Scotland (COPS) cohort profile
Severity of Omicron variant of concern and vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease
December 2021: Unpublished pre-print study looking at the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern.
Uptake, effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccines in children and young people in Scotland: Protocol for early pandemic evaluation and enhanced surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II)
Protocol for a prospective study to investigate the uptake, effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccines in children and young people (CYP) aged 0 to 17 years in Scotland.
Two-dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine protection against COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths over time in Scotland & Brazil
December 2021: The protection offered by the Oxford-Astra Zeneca Covid-19 vaccine declines after three months of receiving two doses, a study says.
Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission among children aged 5–17 years with asthma in Scotland: a national incident cohort study
November 2021: Research published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine looks at the risk of children with asthma in Scotland being admitted to hospital with COVID-19.
Retrospective cohort study to evaluate medication use in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in Scotland: protocol for a national observational study
Protocol for an exploratory drug utilisation study, aimed at providing in-depth descriptions of patients receiving any combination of three therapeutic drugs (dexamethasone, remdesivir and tocilizumab), as well as the treatment patterns observed in Scotland.
External validation of the QCovid risk prediction algorithm for risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality in adults: national validation cohort study in Scotland
November 2021: External validation of the QCovid risk prediction algorithm using the EAVE II dataset
Characteristics and risk of COVID-19-related death in fully vaccinated people in Scotland
October 2021: A research letter published in The Lancet looks at people in Scotland who have died of COVID-19 after two vaccine doses, and what the risks and causes might be.
Neurological complications after first dose of COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection
October 2021: Vaccine data analysis from England and Scotland, published in the Nature Medicine, looks at possible links between conditions of the nervous system and COVID-19 infection and vaccination.
Association between multimorbidity and mortality in a cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in Scotland
October 2021: Research published in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine looks at the risk of death after being admitted to hospital with COVID-19. We look at patients who were shielding or living with multiple long term conditions, during the first wave of the pandemic in Scotland.
Vaccine Efficacy against the Delta Variant in Scotland
October 2021: Research published in the New England Journal of Medicine estimates the level of protection that vaccines give against deaths from COVID-19 infection with the Delta variant.
COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths post BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 vaccinations: National prospective cohort study of 2.57 million people in Scotland
September 2021: New research published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine looks at the number of people in Scotland who have died from or been admitted to hospital with COVID-19 after at least one vaccine dose.
Ethnic and social inequalities in COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland: protocol for early pandemic evaluation and enhanced surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II)
Protocol to describe ethnic and social inequalities in COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland.
Predicted COVID-19 positive cases, hospitalisations, and deaths associated with the Delta variant of concern, June–July, 2021 (EURO 2020)
July 2021: A research letter in The Lancet Digital Health models the impact of the Delta variant on COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions and deaths in Scotland around the time of EURO 2020.
Temporal trends and forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in Scotland using a national real-time patient-level data platform: a statistical modelling study
July 2021: A paper published in The Lancet Digital Health describes the EAVE II cohort and its use to monitor and forecast COVID-19 health outcomes across the Scottish population since March 2020.
SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness
June 2021: The Delta variant of COVID-19 is associated with approximately double the risk of hospitalisation compared with the Alpha variant, but vaccine continues to protect.
First-dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccines and thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events in Scotland.
June 2021: EAVE II study of 2.53 million first COVID-19 vaccine doses across Scotland shows small increases in risk for some adverse events following Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.
Cohort profile: Early pandemic evaluation and enhanced surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) database
The EAVE II cohort profile, detailing why the cohort was set up, who is in the cohort, and what has been found, measured, and more.
Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on the Incidence and Mortality of Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: National Interrupted Time Series Analyses for Scotland and Wales
May 2021: First national level analysis shows hospital admissions for COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) across Scotland and Wales fell during the first COVID-19 lockdown.
Interim findings from first-dose mass COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland
May 2021: A milestone study, which points to the success of first dose mass vaccination in reducing COVID-19 hospitalisations across Scotland, is now available from The Lancet.
Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on emergency asthma admissions and deaths: national interrupted time series analyses for Scotland and Wales
March 2021: Study finds 36% fewer people were admitted to hospital in Scotland and Wales in the first lockdown due to asthma.
Pre-print of COVID-19 Vaccines Effectiveness in Scotland paper
Vaccination has been linked to a substantial reduction in the risk of Covid-19 admissions to Scotland’s hospitals, landmark research suggests in pre-print.
COVID-19 in Pregnancy in Scotland (COPS): protocol for an observational study using linked Scottish national data
A prospective cohort study using linked data in Scotland
COVID-19 in Pregnancy in Scotland (COPS): protocol for an observational study using linked Scottish national data
A prospective cohort study using linked data in Scotland
Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from COVID-19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study
October 2020: A study to derive and validate a risk prediction algorithm to estimate hospital admission and mortality outcomes from COVID-19 in adults.
Impact of COVID-19 on accident and emergency attendances and admissions in Scotland
October 2020: A study published in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine highlights significant drops in A&E attendances, and emergency and planned hospital admissions across Scotland during the first few months of the pandemic.
Protocol: EAVE II Study
Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II): Protocol for an Observational Study using Linked Scottish National Data