Dr Peter Alexander
Senior Lecturer in Global Food Security

- School of Geosciences
- Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems
Contact details
Address
- Street
-
Institute of Geography, Drummond Street
- City
- Edinburgh
- Post code
- EH8 9XP
- Street
-
Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems
The University of Edinburgh
Easter Bush Campus - City
- Midlothian
- Post code
- EH25 9RG
Background
Increases in changes in climate, increases in human populations, and changes in socioeconomic conditions means that the global land use system will need to adapt to provide the world with food, timber, and other resources. The extent and locations of agriculture and forestry will shift, farmers will change the kinds of crops they grow, and new fertilization and irrigation patterns will emerge. These land use changes may conflict with plans to achieve carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems as a climate change mitigation measure, and likely further increase pressure on biodiversity.
To better understand this web of interconnections, in collaboration with others, I have been leading the development of the Land System Modular Model (LandSyMM). This includes more detailed yield data and responses to intensity of production (e.g. fertiliser and irrigation use) and a greater spatial specificity than previously possible in other approaches, as well as representing change dynamics in food demand and international trade. This model has already been used to quantify the impacts of the changes on ecosystem service indicators such as the land carbon balance, runoff, and nitrogen pollution, and explore the impact of future changes in diet on habitat availability in biodiversity hotspots, as well as the reverse—looking at the food security implications of different land conservation scenario.
Research Projects
Research summary
My work focuses on the social, economic and ecological interactions within the food and land use systems, typically applying data and computationally intensive techniques, such as agent-based modelling. The work considers interactions between climate change adaptation and mitigation, as well as how the globalisation of the food system creates teleconnections between actions in one location having consequences in others. The role of international trade in reducing or exacerbating vulnerabilities to shocks, including geopolitical shocks, is a particular interest. How land use and food system changes interact with dietary choices and human health, e.g. patterns of food consumption influencing environmental outcomes and environmental changes impacting nutrition and health, are also considered in my research.
I am a lead author for the 2022 IPCC (WGII) report assessing the Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability to climate change.
Research activities
- DEFRA Futures Non-Linear, Long-Range Scenario Analysis
- DEFRA Environmental Land Management modelling expert panel
- Lead Scientist on review and analyse for DEFRA on options for land manager and farmer behavioural modelling to
- Scientific expert invited by NERC at JPI Climate-Belmont Forum scoping meeting on "Development and application of integrated, scenarios-based assessments to support mitigation and adaptation decisions."
-
Agent‐based modelling of alternative futures in the British land use system
In:
Earth's Future
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002905
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (E-pub ahead of print) -
Downscaling Population and Urban Land Use for Socio-economic Scenarios in the United Kingdom
In:
Regional Environmental Change, vol. 22
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01963-7
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Published) -
How different COVID-19 recovery paths affect human health, environmental sustainability, and food affordability
In:
The Lancet Planetary Health
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Accepted/In press) -
Food system resilience: Concepts, issues and challenges
In:
Agricultural and Resource Economics Review
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Accepted/In press) -
Global and regional health and food security under strict conservation scenarios
In:
Nature Sustainability
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00844-x
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Published) -
A New Modelling Approach to Adaptation-Mitigation in the Land System
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4
Research output: › Chapter (peer-reviewed) (E-pub ahead of print) -
Impact of regional bans of highly hazardous pesticides on agricultural yields: the case of Kerala
In:
Agriculture and Food Security
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Accepted/In press) -
How does market power affect the resilience of food supply?
In:
Global Food Security, vol. 30
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100556
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Published) -
Predicting the abatement rates of soil organic carbon sequestration management in Western European vineyards using random forest regression
In:
Cleaner Environmental Systems, vol. 2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cesys.2021.100024
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Published) -
Soil organic carbon sequestration rates in vineyard agroecosystems under different soil management practices: A meta-analysis
In:
Journal of Cleaner Production
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125736
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (E-pub ahead of print) -
The global environmental paw print of pet food
In:
Global Environmental Change, vol. 65
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102153
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Published) -
Impacts of rising temperatures and farm management practices on global yields of 18 crops
In:
Nature Food
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00148-x
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Published) -
Modelling food security: Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale
In:
Global Environmental Change, vol. 63, pp. 102085
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102085
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Published) -
Exploring global food system shocks, scenarios and outcomes
In:
Futures
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102601
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (E-pub ahead of print) -
UK food system resilience tested by Covid-19
In:
Nature Food
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-0082-1
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Comment/debate (E-pub ahead of print) -
Meeting the food security challenge for nine billion people in 2050: What impact on forests?
In:
Global Environmental Change, vol. 62
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102056
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Published) -
Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators
In:
Earth System Dynamics
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Published) -
Modelling alternative management scenarios of economic and environmental sustainability of beef finishing systems
In:
Journal of Cleaner Production, pp. 119888
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119888
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Published) -
Comparing the impact of future cropland expansion on global biodiversity and carbon storage across models and scenarios
In:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0189
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (Published) -
A bio-economic model for cost analysis of alternative management strategies in beef finishing systems.
In:
Agricultural systems
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102713
Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article (E-pub ahead of print)